Prospecting the academic grounds on global energies patterns
In the 2012 World Outlook, the IEA expects an increase in global consumption of primary energy by one-third by 2035. It would reach 16 730 Mtoe against 12,380 Mtoe in 2010. 60% of this increase in global consumption should come from China, India and the Middle East. The OECD would be much less impacted, increasing its energy consumption by 3% more than in 2010.
Yet the main developments in these countries should come from various energy sources: the share of oil and coal is expected to fall from 57% to 42%.
The IEA puts energy efficiency at the heart of its recommendations. These measures could divide by 2 the considered increase in global energy consumption by 2035.
To put those Mtoe in perspective, and realize how any transition in our energy mix is far from being achieved (if not impossible by 2035), the following graphic provides the trend in renewables energies for OCDE countries since the 70s (the units are also in Mtoe= Mtep)
We have reached about 400 Mtep produced from renewables energies which is about 7% of the OCDE energy demand of 2035 (which will only accounts for 35% of the global demand defined above as 16000 Mtoe)