Prospecting the academic grounds on global energies patterns

World energy consumption

In 2008 the global production of liquid fuels averaged 82.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) or approximately one thousand barrels a second. The IEA forecasts this increasing to 103.8 mb/d by 2030 (an increase of 26%) largely as a result of income growth in the developing world and the expanding demand for personal automotive transport. Many analysts question whether 100 mb/d is achievable, or if so, whether it can be sustained for any length of time.

As demand increases, the burning question remains: How long could we rely on fossil fuels reserves to meet global demand?

Some such as Paul M Wihbey tend to present an optimistic view of the oil current and future production; as an example in his book ‘the rise of the new oil order’ he answered a question within this optimistic frame.

{As presented in the page United States, there has been a shift of demand of US to Non-Persian-Gulf regions.The question asked to Paul Michael Wihbey accounts for this shift}:

“- When I see 3.5 mbpd more in Alberta and 1.5 in Nigeria, this makes 5 mbpd, not more than 6% of global demand. Can you explain where in the next several years production will come from to compensate the possible decline coming from the Persian Gulf?

– Excluding the Gulf, I believe that by 2015-2020 proven global reserves will increase by 500 billion barrels. According to BP in 2007, proved oil reserves, including the Persian Gulf, are estimated at 1.24 trillion barrels- sufficient to meet current production (of oil) for more than 41 years.”

The optimism on the development of unconventional oils and the potential for new discoveries of conventional oil fields is not shared by everyone as explained on the following page.


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This entry was posted on December 27, 2012 by .


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